大麦与谷类科学

为了阐明世界与中国大麦贸易格局，系统剖析了1995—2024年世界与中国大麦贸易规模和市场结构的演变特点。研究发现：从世界看，大麦贸易量显著增长，出口市场集中度和进口市场集中度均持续提高，近年来中国成为第一大进口国和多国最大出口目的地；从中国看，大麦进口量由平稳转为高位波动增长，进口均价由低位运行转为波动上涨，进口来源更多元但仍以澳大利亚为主，中国出口量很少，出口均价由低位运行转为高位运行，出口市场集中但趋于多元。究其原因，既有全球大麦供需与贸易格局变动的影响，也有国内大麦供需缺口大与需求增长的推动，还有国产大麦竞争力弱与大麦贸易政策调整的作用。面对世界与中国大麦贸易格局的动态变化，需要提高统筹利用国内与国际两个市场、两种资源的能力，通过推动国际供应链多元化、加强贸易监测与政策调控、提升国内综合生产能力和加强国内产业链协同合作，构建更加安全、稳定、高效的大麦产业链与供应链，更好地保障国家粮食安全和国内大麦产业健康发展。

In order to clarify the global and Chinese barley trade pattern, this study systematically analyzed the evolution characteristics of the scale and market structure of global and Chinese barley trade from 1995 to 2024. The results show that from a global perspective, the global barley trade volume has increased significantly, with the concentration of both export and import markets rising steadily. In recent years, China has become the world's largest barley importer and the largest export destination for many countries.From a Chinese perspective, China's barley import volume has shifted from a stable state to high-level fluctuating growth. The average barley import price has changed from low-level operation to fluctuating growth, and the barley import sources have become more diversified, but Australia still remains the main import source. China's barley export volume is very small. The average barley export price has transitioned from low-level operation to high-level operation, and the barley export markets are concentrated but tend to be diversified. The reasons for the evolution of China's barley trade include the impact of changes in the global barley supply-demand and trade patterns, the driving force of the large domestic supply-demand gap and growing demand of barley, as well as the weak international competitiveness of domestic barley and adjustments to China's barley trade policies. In the face of the dynamic changes in the global and China's barley trade patterns, it is necessary to enhance the ability to coordinate the use of domestic and international markets and resources. By promoting the diversification of international supply chains, strengthening trade monitoring and policy regulation, improving domestic comprehensive production capacity, and enhancing the collaborative cooperation of the domestic industrial chain, a safer, more stable and efficient barley industrial chain and supply chain should be built to better safeguard China's national food security and the healthy development of domestic barley industry.